Most Indie Films Don’t Get Sold (Here’s Why)
Hi there
As you may know, most indie films don’t sell.
Or at least don't sell for the numbers we hope.
And almost every filmmaker I speak to has a theory about why.
Let’s go through some of those together:
We just missed out on a major festival.
Our timing was off.
The sales agent didn’t push hard enough.
The distributor didn’t care.
The market is “dead.”
Streamers ruined everything.
Sometimes those things are true.
But most of the time?
You didn’t lose your film at this stage. You lost it earlier. Like way, way earlier.
You lost it in early development. Even at concept stage.
And that’s uncomfortable.
Because it means the outcome was largely locked in long before anyone watched a screener.
Let me take you through the 5 mistakes filmmakers make that result in an unsold indie film.
I’m also going to use the mental model of inversion to tell you what decisions you would make to ensure your film does sell.
Mistake #1: You Never Defined the Buyer
Most indie films are built like this:
Script → Raise money → Shoot → Finish → Hope someone buys it.
But no one ever clearly answers:
Who is the audience for this?
Which buyers serve that audience?
What recent titles from the buyer prove demand?
Why would they feel urgency around this film over others?
If you can’t name three realistic buyers before you raise a dollar, you’re not building a commercial project.
Better yet, if you can’t lock in a local distributor, international sales agent and ideally some presales, you may find that your film doesn’t have the appeal you thought it would.
A property developer does not design a fifty-story glass tower and then check to see if the neighborhood can support the rent or if the bank will lend on that specific zip code. They look at the market first.
As producers, we should be doing the same.
Inversion: If you want to ensure your film does sell, at a minimum you would have a clearly defined audience, know which buyers serve that audience, and be able to point to recent examples of those buyers proving the demand.
Better yet, you would lock in domestic distribution, international sales agent and some presales.
Mistake #2: You Confused Festival Strategy With Sales Strategy
I see this constantly.
I’m guilty of it myself.
The reason it happens is because when you start out you really have no idea about distributors and sales agents, and who is who in the zoo.
You’re just trying to make your damn film and get it into Cannes!
So your film is designed around:
“This feels like Sundance.”
“This feels like Cannes.”
When I made my second film West of Sunshine we said it ‘felt’ like a Venice film. And it got into Venice!
But guess what…
Festivals are cultural events.
Not commercial outcomes.
So the film struggled to sell and only reached a small audience.
Let’s be clear: Festivals create prestige. And prestige can help sales. But never mistake prestige for demand.
If your entire plan is “We’ll premiere somewhere good and that will trigger buyers,” that’s not a strategy.
And you may get a rude shock the day after the red carpet.
Inversion: Festivals would act as a launchpad for your already commercially sound film.
Mistake #3: You Gave the Sales Agent Nothing to Amplify
While we are talking about demand, it’s integral to understand that sales agents don’t create it.
They amplify your upstream decisions.
That means demand needs to be baked into your decisions from the jump.
Decisions that look like:
Recognizable cast
A clear genre hook
A defined audience
Strong comparables
A marketable / hooky logline
A concept buyers can repeat in one sentence
If none of those are strong, it’s impossible for sales agents to turn the tide for your film.
Inversion: You make a film in a clearly defined commercial genre (action, horror, sci-fi), with some level of recognisable cast, with a hooky marketable logline (ideally high concept), with a defined audience. You do those things, and the sales agent simply pours fuel on your decisions.
Mistake #4: You’re Competing in a Power-Law Market (But Acting Like It’s Normal)
By now you’ve likely heard me talking about this quite a bit…
Film returns are not normally distributed.
They are power-law driven.
A tiny number of indie films:
Break out at Sundance
Trigger bidding wars
Win awards
Travel globally
The vast majority cluster around:
Small territory deals
Low MGs
Or no sale at all
This isn’t a moral judgment about your film and career.
It’s a structural relationship that governs the laws of movie economics.
You are not competing in a market where “average film = average outcome.”
You’re competing in a winner-takes-most ecosystem.
If your film doesn’t break out, the default outcome isn’t “modest sale.”
It's a flop.
Inversion: We can’t break the power law that exists in film. But if you know you’re operating in a winner-takes-all environment, the best thing you can do is price your film according to its risk-adjusted packaging (genre, cast, director) to minimise your downside risk and maximise your upside potential.
Mistake #5: You Thought “Good” Was Enough
Most indie films are decent enough.
But is ‘decent-enough’ going to cut it now that we know we are competing in a winner-takes-most ecosystem?
Unlikely.
Even if your film is well shot, well acted and sincere in its intentions.
The market can judge it however it likes.
Buyers move when they feel:
This fits a clear audience we understand.
This has specific buyers to appeal to.
This has elements that travel.
This could break out.
They do not move because something is respectable.
They may not even move because something is great.
The move because it’s exceptional, either in its execution or its positioning.
Inversion: Make an exceptional film (simple, not easy) OR make a good film but ensure the positioning is exceptional.
The Uncomfortable Conclusion
Most indie films don’t get sold because the commercial strategy was never embedded in the development process.
They were built as creative projects first.
Commercial logic was then retrofitted later.
You can’t fix structural positioning problems at the sales stage.
You fix them while you are writing the script.
That’s where the sale is really made.
Long before the finance is raised.
That's it for this week.
See you next time.
Alexi
